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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."